I 


THE 

NOTE  BOOK  OF 
A  NEUTRAL 


UC-NRLF 


B   3   13fi    ?t5 


JOSEPH  MEDILL  PATTERSON 


I 


THE  NOTE  BOOK 
OF   A   NEUTRAL 


BY 


JOSEPH  MEDILL  PATTERSON 


♦  I 


NEW    YORK 

DUFFIELD   &   COMPANY 

1916 


Reprinted  from  the  Chicago  Tribune 


Copyright,  1915.  by  Joseph  Medill  Pattekson 


THE  NOTE  BOOK 
OF    A    NEUTRAL 


S.  S.  CYMRIC,  Sept.  17,  1915. 

"Our  country!  In  her  intercourse  with 
foreign  nations  may  she  always  be  in  the 
right;  but  our  country^  right  or  wrong.'* 

— Stephen  Decatur. 

I  propose  to  write  five  or  six 
articles  setting  forth  my  reflec- 
tions on  the  great  war.  These 
articles  cannot  be  classed  as  war 
correspondence,  for  they  will 
contain  little,  if  anything,  that 

3 


327564 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


is  new  or  unknown  to  the  readers 
of  newspapers.  They  are  rather 
the  reactions  of  an  American 
born  and  brought  up  in  the  Mis- 
sissippi valley,  whose  parents  and 
grandparents  lived  in  the  same 
region,  and  whose  ancestors  in 
some  branches  for  several  gener- 
ations back  were  native  to  this 
continent. 

Since  the  war  began  I  have 
been  in  Belgium  on  three  sep- 
arate occasions.  First,  from  the 
east  with  the  Germans  as  far  as 
Liege;  next,  from  the  north  in 
Antwerp  with  the  Belgians ;  and 
recently  from  the  west  with 
French  staff-officers  in  the  strip 
of  Belgian  territory  near  the  sea, 
which  the  Germans  have  not 
been  able  to  occupy.    In  addition 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


to  this  I  have  talked  with  certain 
dignitaries,  as  well  as  many  more 
both  civil  and  military  who 
were  not  dignitaries,  in  London, 
Berlin,  and  Paris. 

I  have  read  many  books,  news- 
papers, and  other  periodicals 
bearing  on  the  war,  though  this 
reading  has  been  confined  to 
English,  French,  and  transla- 
tions from  the  German,  for  I 
cannot  read  or  talk  German. 

Decatur's  toast  which  heads 
this  column  is  frequently  crit- 
icized as  immoral.  It  is  com- 
pared to  "My  mother,  may  she 
always  be  sober ;  but  my  mother, 
drunk  or  sober." 

It  is  the  use  of  the  word  ''im- 
moral"   when  applied  to  inter- 

5 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


national  politics  that  often  leads 
us  astray. 

England  proclaims  every  power 
moral  that  is  allied  with  England 
and  every  power  immoral  that  is 
opposed  to  England.  A  hundred 
years  ago  the  English  described 
Germans,  Austrians,  and  Rus- 
sians as  "our  gallant  allies," 
among  whom,  ironically  enough, 
"the  brave  Prussians,  under  the 
dogged  leadership  of  old  Bluch- 
er,"  were  singled  out  for  the  most 
lavish  praise.  At  the  same  time 
the  British  government  ofBcially 
described  the  French  Emperor  as 
the  "enemy  of  mankind"  (i.  e., 
England),  and  pronounced  him 
an  outcast  "outside  the  pale  of 
social  and  civil  relations,"  and 
having    dethroned    him,    forced 


OF    A   NEUTRAL 


upon  the  throne  of  France  in  his 
place  the  hopeless  and  detested 
Bourbons. 

Sixty  years  ago  in  Crimea, 
England  promoted  France,  Tur- 
key, and  Sardinia  to  the  rank  of 
"noble  allies,"  which  invaded 
Russia  with  the  laudable  purpose 
of  ''carrying  the  torch  of  civili- 
zation into  the  empire  of  ice, 
night,   and  the  knout." 

Incidentally,  fifty  years  ago 
Prussia  whipped  its  present  no- 
ble ally,  Austria,  because  that 
country  was  a  ''treaty  breaker" 
and  "faithless  to  its  plighted 
word." 

Thirty-eight  years  ago  England 
prevented  Russia  from  getting 
Constantinople  and  kept  Turkey 
in     Europe     because    the     Czar 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 

''aimed  at  the  dominion  of  the 
world." 

Thirty  years  ago  Russia  threat- 
ened India  and  became  "the 
bear  that  walks  like  a  man. 


tt 


Now  the  wheel  has  gone  full 
circle.  The  former  allies,  Ger- 
many and  Austria,  are  Huns, 
and  in  particular  "the  brave 
Prussians  under  the  dogged  lead- 
ership, etc."  are  "baby-killing 
junkers,"  while  the  same  Hohen- 
zollern  family  with  which  the 
English  royal  family  has  been 
proudly  exchanging  daughters 
for  the  last  century,  since  it 
fights  against  England  and 
France  instead  of  with  England 
against  France,  has  become  the 
spume  of  hell. 

8 


OF   A   NEUTRAL 


Through  all  the  permutations 
and  combinations  of  interna- 
tional politics  the  wonderful  gov- 
erning class  of  England  has  kept 
one  beacon  light  for  guidance, 
and  only  one — the  interest  of  the 
British  empire.  Whatever  na- 
tion could  temporarily  subserve 
that  interest  became  temporarily 
a  moral  nation,  and  v^hatever 
nation  opposed  that  interest  be- 
came, during  the  continuance 
of  its  opposition,  the  vilest  of  the 
vile. 

Has  this  policy  on  the  w^hole 
proved  successful?  If  you  are  in 
doubt  about  it  look  at  the  map 
of  the  world,  where  you  will  find 
one-fifth  of  the  land  and  all  the 
oceans  painted  British  red. 

While  the  people  are  split  into 

9 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


nations,  there  is  only  one  na- 
tional morality  which  we  Amer- 
icans have  a  right  to  consider — 
the  interest  of  America. 

Our  President,  ex-Presidents, 
Congressmen,  diplomats,  pub- 
lishers (so  far  as  they  are  ac- 
corded public  suffrage)  should, 
if  any  of  them  do  not,  consider 
themselves  as  attorneys  repre- 
senting America  and  America 
only  in  the  tribunal  of  nations. 
The  duties  of  the  attorney  are 
to  his  client  only.  Let  the  at- 
torneys for  other  nations  repre- 
sent them. 

No  American  has  a  right  to 
consider  any  interest  save  the 
interest  of  America.  Any  Amer- 
ican in  a  position  of  power  or 
influence   who   allows   any  con- 

10 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


sideration  but  the  selfish  in- 
terests of  America  to  guide  him 
is  a  traitor — unconsciously  per- 
haps, and  without  a  sense  of 
guilt,  but  still  a  traitor  so  far  as 
results  go. 

Any  American  who  suggests  or 
even  hopes  that  America  should 
go  into  the  war  on  the  side  of  the 
allies  because  he  loves  France,  or 
because  he  sorrows  for  Belgium, 
or  because  of  the  Lusitania,  or 
because  he  thinks  it  would  be 
unfortunate  for  humanity  in 
general  to  have  Germany  tri- 
umph, is  a  traitor  to  America. 

Conversely,  the  American  who 
agitates  for  the  stoppage  of  am- 
munition exports,  or  who  would 

have  us  complicate  in  any  sense 

11 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


whatever  our  relations  with 
Great  Britain  for  the  sake  of 
Germany,  is  a  traitor  to  Amer- 
ica. He  may  be  filial  toward 
Germany.  He  is  a  traitor  to 
America. 

Our  duty  as  Americans  is  not 
to  the  extent  of  one  per  cent  of 
one  per  cent  to  France,  Belgium, 
Germany,  or  foreign  humanity. 
It  is  to  America,  it  is  only  to 
America,  all  to  America,  and  to 
America  always. 

Therefore,  the  American  who 
would  have  us  intervene  in  the 
war  on  the  side  of  the  allies  be- 
cause he  thinks  that  if  we  don't 
do  so  Germany  will  win,  and  if 
Germany  wins  will  attack  us 
next,  and  that  it  is  better  for  us 
to  fight  Germany  now  with  allies 

12 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


than  later  alone — such  a  man, 
I  say,  may  or  may  not  be  mis- 
taken, but  he  is  thinking  pa- 
triotically. Whether  he  is  think- 
ing wisely  or  not,  no  one  in  the 
world  knows  yet. 

One  may  be  for  our  country, 
''right  or  wrong,''  without  ad- 
miring its  faults.  Our  country 
is  inferior  to  other  countries  in 
many,  if  not  most,  of  the  higher 
arts  of  civilization. 


We  are  inferior  to  the  Rus- 
sians, Germans,  Austrians,  Ital- 
ians, French  in  music;  to  the 
same  five  and  to  England  in 
literature,  and  the  theater,  and 
probably  also  painting;  to  Ger- 
many and  Austria  in  medicine; 
to  Germany  and  France  in  phi- 

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THE    NOTE   BOOK 


losophy  (certainly  since  the  death 
of  William  James) ;  to  Germany 
and  France  in  science;  to  Ger- 
many, France,  Austria,  and  Eng- 
land in  municipal  government; 
to  all  of  them,  except  possibly 
France,  in  judicial  practice  and 
procedure ;  to  Germany  and  Eng- 
land in  navy ;  to  all  powers  except 
China  in  army;  to  England  and 
France  as  colony  managers;  to 
Japan,  Germany,  France,  and 
the  rest  of  the  list  in  patriotism ; 
to  Germany  and  France  in  agri- 
culture (each  raises  about  twice 
as  much  oats,  wheat,  barley,  and 
considerably  more  hay  and  po- 
tatoes per  acre  than  we  do) ;  to 
Germany  particularly  in  wise 
social  legislation  for  the  benefit 
of  the  working  classes,  which,  of 

14 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


course,  is  to  the  strengthening  of 
the  state.  There  aren't  as  many 
slum  dwellings  in  all  Germany 
as  in  Chicago  alone. 

However,  a  nation  that  in 
about  a  century  has  invented  the 
steamship,  the  telegraph,  the 
ironclad,  the  revolver,  repeating 
rifle,  machine  gun,  reaper,  tele- 
phone, incandescent  light,  arc 
light,  Pullman  car,  stock  yards, 
Bessemer  steel,  typewriter,  sky- 
scraper, submarine,  aeroplane, 
trolley  car,  and  moving  picture, 
may  not  be  dismissed  with  con- 
tempt. Such  a  nation  is  worth 
saving. 

But  because  we  have  been  so 
clever  and  had  virgin  fields  to 
settle,  money  came  easy  to  us, 

15 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


and  we  grew  rich  and  soft.  After 
the  war  we  are  certain  to  be  the 
envy  and  desire  of  nations  that 
are  hard  and  poor. 

Our  position  is  perilous.  Let 
us  quit  sentimentalizing  about 
others  who  have  no  use  for  us, 
and  think  about  ourselves  and 
the  state  of  our  own  nation. 


16 


II 


S.  S.  CYMRIC,  Sept.  18,  1915. 

*^Our  country!  In  her  intercourse  ivith 
foreign  nations  may  she  always  be  in  the 
right;    but  our  country^  right  or  wrong.'' 

— Stephen  Decatur. 

The  amiable  Gen.  Bernhardi 
said  that  war  was  a  biological 
necessity,  and  made  for  prog- 
ress. I  think  he  was  right,  by 
and  large,  and  that  is  why  I  do 
not  believe  that  the  German 
idea  can  be  beaten  in  this  war. 
Suppose  that  one  people  in  Eu- 
rope develops  a  higher  form  of 
civilization  than  its  neighbors. 
It   may   be   the   castle   and   the 

2  17 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


knight  emerging  from  the  dark 
ages,  or  the  monarch  raising 
himself  and  making  one  central- 
ized nation  by  overthrowing  feu- 
dalism, or  the  middle  trading- 
class  reaching  for  its  power,  or 
liberty,  fraternity,  equality,  in- 
dividualism against  social  and 
legal  caste.  It  may  be  the  state 
socialism  of  modern  Germany 
born  from  individualism  by  pres- 
sure of  population.  Whatever 
the  latest  form  of  social  develop- 
ment in  the  most  advanced 
country,  war  short  circuits  its 
spread  to  its  neighbors. 

That  is  why  Germany  is  so 
difficult  to  beat.  She  had  a 
more  efficient  civilization  than 
any  of  her  foes  at  the  beginning 

of  the  war.     To  whip  the  Ger- 

48 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


man  armies,  though  it  will  prove 
very  difficult,  is  not  impossible. 
It  may  be  done  in  time  by  num- 
bers and  resources.  But  it  can't 
be  done,  in  my  humble  judg- 
ment, unless  Germany's  ene- 
mies imitate  Germany's  meth- 
ods of  organization.  And  that 
is  precisely  what  they  are  doing 
today. 

England  is  Germanizing  its 
social  structure  as  fast  as  pos- 
sible, because  so,  and  so  only, 
can  she  gain  sufficient  strength 
to  whip  Germany. 

So,  though  Germany  be  beat- 
en, the  German  idea  will  win. 
Thus  in  one  sense  Bernhardi 
was  right  about  this  war  mean- 
ing world  power  or  downfall  for 

19 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


his  country.  The  German  idea 
will  have  world  power  after  the 
war,  because  it  has  proved  its 
fundamental  strength  in  con- 
flict with  a  hostile  world,  and  the 
other  nations  are  being  forced 
to  come  to  it  or  forego  hope  of 
victory. 

The  competitive  system  makes 
a  weak  nation;  the  highly  or- 
ganized nation  is  a  strong  one. 
Woe  to  us  if  we  don't  under- 
stand that  after  the  war.  But  I 
don't  think  we  will  consent  to 
understand  it  until  we  have  been 
beaten  in  war,  probably  by  either 
Germany  or  Japan.  I  think  it 
will  take  a  war  to  force  our  po- 
litical and  social  systems  into 
twentieth-century  lines. 

Words    don't    count    in    such 

20 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


cases.  You  can  tell  our  pluto- 
crats that  much  of  the  wealth 
that  goes  to  make  them  strong 
individually  should  go  to  make 
the  nation  strong  as  a  whole, 
and  you  could  prove  biologically 
and  every  other  way  that  women 
workers  shouldn't  stand  on  their 
feet  too  long  every  day  and  that 
children  shouldn't  work  at  all 
and  that  no  child  should  be  al- 
lowed to  have  adenoids  or  bad 
teeth,  no  matter  how  abomina- 
bly ignorant  or  miserably  poor 
his  parents  might  be,  and  you 
could  prove  to  politicians  that 
as  a  method  for  city,  state,  coun- 
ty, park  government,  pure  de- 
mocracy has  proved  an  impure 
failure,  and  you  could  prove  to 
young     workmen     and    farmers 

21 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


(and  ail  other  young  men)  that 
they  ought  to  be  made  to  go  into 
the  army  for  at  least  a  year  or 
the  Japanese  would  gobble  us. 

Would  it  make  any  difference 
what  one  said,  though  one  spoke 
with  the  tongues  of  men  and  of 
angels?  I  don't  think  it  would 
make  any  difference  what  any 
one  said,  and  so  I  think  we  are 
in  for  a  beating  before  long  un- 
less the  balance  of  power  re- 
mains so  absolutely  even  among 
the  other  powers  that  no  one  of 
either  side  will  dare  attack  us, 
not  from  fear  of  us  (why  should 
any  one  fear  us?)  but  for  fear 
that  the  other  side  would  attack 
them. 

We  are  rich,  fat,  soft,  and  easy 

22 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


picking  for  any  gunmen  among 
the  other  nations.  And  the 
world  is  full  of  gunmen  just 
now. 

This  explains  why  particularly 
at  this  time  we  must  think  of 
America  first — America  uber 
alles.  We  are  truly  in  a  precari- 
ous position.  We  have  wounded 
Germany  beyond  her  power  or 
willingness  to  forgive.  She  be- 
lieves that  without  our  muni- 
tions she  could  win  surely. 
Whether  that  is  true  or  other- 
wise, it  is  what  she  believes. 
She  sees  us  as  one  of  the  allies, 
supplying  the  fighting  forces 
with  food  and  ammunition.  She 
sees  us  as  one  of  the  allies  too 
cowardly  to  fight,  but  skulking 
in  the  background,  coining  the 

23 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


blood  of  German  soldiers  into 
American  gold. 

Well,  to  all  intents  and  pur- 
poses we  are  one  of  the  allies. 
But  as  a  nation  we  get  few  fruits 
of  the  alliance.  That  goes  to 
the  private  manufacturers  of 
ammunition. 

Now  is  the  time  to  put  the 
allies  under  obligation,  to  make 
them  realize  that  if  Germany  is 
going  to  hate  us  after  the  war, 
they  (which,  of  course,  means 
England  with  her  navy)  must 
have  the  gratitude  to  protect  us 
after  the  war  from  Germany's 
vengeance  or  Japan's  ambition. 
Indeed,  the  gratitude  of  the 
strong  to  the  weak  after  the  event 
is  not  the  livest  thing  on  earth, 
but  it  is  a  considerable  improve- 

24 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


ment  on  the  contempt  and  an- 
noyance of  the  strong  for  the 
weak  at  having  been  held  up  or 
''blackmailed,"  as  the  English 
put  it  in  private  conversation, 
for  double  price  in  time  of  need. 

This  is  the  feeling  v^e  are  now 
carefully  preparing  for  ourselves. 
The  feeling  of  gratitude  of  the 
strong  for  the  strong  would  be 
the  most  fortunate  of  all  for  us. 
But  there's  no  question  of  that. 
We  sha'n't  be  strong  as  a  nation 
until  we're  first  beaten,  and  may- 
be not  then.  China  isn't  strong 
and  it  certainly  has  been  beaten 
a  lot. 

Now  is  the  opportunity  to 
drive  a  bargain  with  England  for 
protection  in  the  future  against 
Germany   and   Japan.      If   Eng- 

25 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


land  refuses  the  bargain  we  can 
and  should  stop  the  export  of  all 
ammunition  to  the  allies  now. 
We  shall  never  be  in  a  more  ad- 
vantageous position  to  make 
such  a  bargain  than  precisely 
now. 

Will  our  government  drive  or 
attempt  to  drive  such  a  bargain? 

It  will  not.  We  shall  proceed 
as  heretofore,  embittering  the 
mighty  German  nation  to  ir- 
reconcilability and  meanwhile 
placing  the  allies  under  no  obli- 
gation to  us  whatsoever  for  pro- 
tection after  the  war. 

No  Frenchman  or  Englishman 
with  whom  I  talked  —  and  I 
talked  with  many  —  no  English 
or  French  paper  which  I  have 
read,  seems   to   think   we   have 

26 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


acted  in  anything  but  an  un- 
handsoine  and  rather  cowardly 
way  to  the  allies. 

If  you  mention  ammunition, 
they  say:  ''Good  heavens,  we 
pay  you  money  for  that,  through 
the  nose,  a  double  price.  Do 
you  expect  gratitude  as  well?" 
The  money  that  they  pay  they 
do  not  pay  to  the  nation,  but  the 
nation  may  yet  pay  for  it. 

And  so,  ladies  and  gentlemen, 
it  appears  to  this  writer  that  we 
are  drifting  on  to  our  national 
Niagara,  squabbling  about  the 
rights  and  WTongs  of  Belgium, 
thinking  nothing  of  the  greater 
Belgium  that  we  may  ourselves 
become. 


27 


Ill 


S.  S.  CYMRIC,  Sept.  19,  1915. 

*^Our  country!  In  her  intercourse  with 
foreign  nations  may  she  always  be  in  the 
right;  but  our  country,  right  or  wrong.'' 

— Stephen  Decatur. 

Theodore  Roosevelt,  in  my 
opinion,  has  more  vision  than 
any  American  statesman  since 
Lincoln.  He  saw^  the  need  of 
conservation,  of  recognizing  and 
regulating  the  trusts  (not  ''bust- 
ing" them,  the  futile  policy  of 
his  tv^o  successors),  of  social 
legislation,  which,  though  be- 
hind that  even  of  such  an  in- 

28 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


dividualistic  and  conservative 
country  as  England,  was  ahead 
of  anything  we  had  had.  He 
saw  the  need  of  national  defense 
and  that  it  does  not  take  two  to 
make  an  international  quarrel. 
He  saw  the  need  of  the  Panama 
strip  and  took  it,  the  meaning 
of  the  Santo  Domingo  custom- 
houses and  seized  them;  he  oc- 
cupied Cuba  a  second  time, 
thereby  emasculating  the  fool- 
ish Piatt  amendment.  No  one 
doubts  what  he  would  have  done 
in  Mexico  before  that  unhappy 
land  had  reverted  into  chaos. 

Therefore,  when  Theodore 
Roosevelt,  with  full  vigor,  de- 
livers invective  against  the  Ger- 
mans and  prays  for  their  defeat 
it  should  give  every  thoughtful 

29 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


and  patriotic  American  pause  no 
matter  what  his  blood.  Roose- 
velt has  been  right  so  much 
oftener  than  he  has  been  wrong 
in  his  visions  that  the  balance  of 
probability  would  seem  to  be 
that  he  is  right  again  in  a  case 
of  this  sort. 

But  I  believe  that  Col.  Roose- 
velt's visions  spring  rather  from 
his  subconscious  than  from  his 
conscious  mind;  that  his  con- 
clusions come  first,  the  fruit  of 
his  intuitions  and  emotions ;  and 
that  the  process  of  apparent  rea- 
soning and  the  arguments  are 
fitted  to  them  afterwards  like 
the  woodwork  and  ornamenta- 
tion in  a  building. 

The  reasons  which  Col.  Roose- 

30 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


velt  alleges  as  the  causes  of  his 
anger  and  distrust  toward  Ger- 
many seem  to  be  chiefly  two: 
the  violation  of  Belgian  neutral- 
ity and  the  Lusitania.  I  confess 
both  those  reasons  leave  me  cold. 
Indeed,  in  the  present  perilous 
condition  of  our  country,  any 
reason  for  international  action 
leaves  me  cold  which  does  not 
have  some  direct  or  indirect  bear- 
ing on  our  own  welfare.  I  wish 
other  Americans  would  will 
themselves  into  the  same  frame 
of  mind. 

President  Roosevelt  himself  vi- 
olated the  neutrality  of  Colom- 
bia and  seized  the  most  valuable 
portion  of  that  covxntry — the 
Panama  Canal  strip.  I  thought 
he    was    acting    as    a    patriotic 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


American  then  and  applauded 
him  for  it.  Time  has  only  con- 
firmed me  in  the  opinion  that 
the  seizing  of  the  canal  strip  was 
the  deed  of  a  far-seeing  and  pa- 
triotic American  statesman. 

England  has  recently  violated 
the  neutrality  of  Greece  by  seiz- 
ing the  island  of  Mitylene.  Why? 
Because  it  was  desirable  as  a 
naval  base  in  the  operations 
against  the  Dardanelles.  The 
English  seem  to  approve  the  de- 
cision without  one  single  dissent- 
ing voice.  And  I  for  one  think 
that  they  would  have  been  fools 
if  they  had  acted  otherwise. 

"But  the  Germans  committed 
atrocities  and  the  Americans  and 
English  didn't." 

32 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


I  believe  that  both  Americans 
and  English  were  armed  to  com- 
mit the  atrocity  of  death  on 
whomsoever  resisted  them.  And 
I  believe  it  indubitable  that  the 
atrocities  committed  by  the 
Germans  in  Belgium  were  in  no 
wise  more  terrible  than  the  atroc- 
ities committed  by  the  Russians 
in  East  Prussia  in  August,  1914. 
The  rough  work  of  the  Russians 
in  East  Prussia  contributed  enor- 
mously to  the  victory  of  the 
Marne  by  compelling  the  Ger- 
mans to  withdraw  six  army  corps 
from  their  western  forces  just 
before  that  historic  conflict  in 
order  to  protect  East  Prussia, 
the  cradle  of  the  German  empire. 
One  has  heard  no  complaints  of 
Russian   atrocities   in   Germany 

3  33 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


by  pro-ally  partisans  and  no 
complaints  of  German  atrocities 
in  Belgium  by  pro-Germans. 

In  the  words  of  the  old  political 
story,  '^Tell  me  first  which  d — n 
rascals  did  it;  their  d — n  rascals 
or  ours." 

We  Americans  need  not  senti- 
mentalize about  that  famous 
''scrap  of  paper.''  It  is  none  of 
our  business.  Let  us  consider 
instead  what  has  a  very  fair 
chance  of  happening  to  us,  our 
coasts,  our  fortunes,  and  our 
families  within  a  decade. 

If  any  pro-ally  partisans  here 
insist,  and  many  will,  that  such 
an  attitude  is  base  and  cowardly 
cynicism,  that  treaties  are  and 
of  right  ought  to  be  perpetual, 

34 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


inviolable,  and  unalterable,  that 
we  should  certainly  protest  and 
possibly  fight  whenever  foreign 
nations  break  treaties  between 
themselves,  then  what  do  these 
same  pro-ally  partisans  think  of 
Italy's  action?  Italy,  that  made 
one  of  the  brightest  bonfires  on 
record  out  of  one  of  the  biggest 
scraps  of  paper  in  history — the 
triple  alliance. 

The  fact  is  that  that  is  none 
of  our  business  either.  We  have 
neither  the  intelligence  nor  the 
strength  to  be  custodian  of  the 
morals  of  all  other  nations.  But 
the  Italian  scrap  of  paper  and  the 
joy  with  which  Italy's  violation 
of  her  treaty  was  received  by  the 
allies  and  pro-allies  serve  to  in- 
dicate what  a  lot  of  cant  and  hy- 

35 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


pocrisy  has  been  ladled  out  on 
this  ''scrap  of  paper"  topic. 

If  treaties  were  never  broken 
there  would  never  have  been  a 
war.  If  treaties  were  never  bro- 
ken Europe  would  still  be  divided 
into  duchies,  margravates,  bish- 
oprics, counties.  The  scraps  of 
paper  ordaining  the  relations  of 
those  defunct  divisions  would 
have  the  value  of  immutable 
law  now  and  for  all  future  time. 

Whether  Germany  remains  a 
military  imperium  or  becomes  a 
socialistic  democracy,  as  long  as 
German  loins  remain  fruitful 
German  weight  will  press  in- 
creasingly upon  Belgium  and 
Holland.  For  the  German  Rhine 
crosses  Holland  to  come  to  the 
sea  and  a  heavy  percentage  of 

36 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


Rhenish  Prussian  products  must 
reach  salt-water  by  canals  to 
Antwerp  and  the  Scheldt. 

If  the  mouth  of  the  Mississippi 
were  held  by  another  power  we 
should  press  upon  that  power  no 
matter  what  our  form  of  govern- 
ment. 

There  may  be  valid  reasons 
why  we  Ainericans  should  wish 
to  see  the  Germans  beaten,  even 
to  the  extent  of  joining  in  the 
war  against  them.  Don't  let  us, 
therefore,  urge  invalid  reasons. 

The  Lusitania.  Permit  me  to 
say  that  I  made  it  a  particular 
point  to  return  on  this  slow 
White  Star  British  ship,  the 
Cymric,  one  of  the  largest  of  the 
ammunition-carriers,  sister  ship 

^7 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


to  the  Arabic,  in  order  to  see  if 
my  opinion  concerning  the  Lu- 
sitania  was  in  any  way  modified 
by  the  fear  for  a  period  of  twenty- 
four  hours  that  a  German  sub- 
marine might  kill  me  without 
further  warning  than  I  already 
had  had.  My  opinion  has  not 
changed.  The  war  is  between 
England  and  Germany.  Each  is 
trying  by  intimidation  and  de- 
struction on  the  sea  to  starve  the 
other  and  so  preserve  itself.  The 
grain  of  wheat  that  inserts  itself 
between  the  millstones  may  ex- 
pect to  be  crushed ;  the  American 
passenger  who  chooses  an  Eng- 
lish ship  now  takes  the  risk  of 
the  venture.  Before  sailing  on 
this  ship  I  left  behind  me  a  note, 
which    would    have    been    pro- 

38 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


duced  had  occasion  arisen,  to 
state  that  I  wanted  to  be  the  sub- 
ject of  no  representations  or  in- 
quiries whatever,  as  I  had  gone 
into  the  thing  with  my  eyes  open. 
The  cause  of  the  Arabic  was 
similar  to,  though  less  spectacu- 
lar than,  the  case  of  the  Lusi- 
tania,  for  the  latter  carried  and 
lost  more  and  more  prominent 
passengers,  and  was  a  most  fa- 
mous flier  of  the  seas.  Both  had 
received  the  same  degree  of  warn- 
ing, if  warning  it  may  be  called, 
namely,  a  general  warning  from 
the  German  government,  not  a 
specific  warning  from  the  Ger- 
man submarine  commander.  In- 
deed, the  case  of  the  Arabic  was 
more  flagrant  because  she  was 
not     carrying     ammunition     to 

39 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


England,  but  gold  to  America, 
presumably  to  pay  for  ammuni- 
tion or  other  war  material. 

By  the  way,  it  has  never  been 
printed  or  otherwise  publicly  ac- 
knowledged in  England  to  this 
day  that  the  Lusitania's  cargo 
consisted,  in  part,  of  ammuni- 
tion. 

Germany  may  possibly  gain 
on  land  for  two  or  three  years  to 
come  and  yet  in  the  end^  if  his- 
tory be  prophetic,  and  it  usually 
is,  Germany  must  succumb  if 
England  can  keep  its  own  mer- 
chant fleet  copious  on  the  seas 
and  keep  Germany's  merchant- 
men in  ports. 

England  finally  strangled  her 
other  great  challengers,   Spain, 

40 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


Louis  XIV.,  Napoleon,  with  salt- 
water. 

There  is  no  chance  now  visible 
for  Germany  to  get  her  ships  out 
on  the  oceans  to  replenish  her 
with  gold  loaned  by  us,  with 
shells  made  by  us,  with  copper 
dug  from  us,  with  bread  raised 
by  us  and  Argentina. 

But  this  possibility  remains 
for  Germany,  though  an  improb- 
able possibility  it  seems  to  be: 
If  Germany  could  make  its  sub- 
marine tactics  five  times  as  ef- 
fective, if  instead  of  sinking  ten 
British  merchant  ships  a  week, 
it  could  sink  fifty,  then  the  price 
of  food  might  rise  to  such  a 
pitch  in  the  British  islands  that 
England  would  consent  to  make 
a   compromise   settlement   with 

41 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


Germany.  Prices  of  food  have 
about  doubled  in  the  British 
islands  since  war  began.  Ger- 
many and  Austria  together  are, 
or  rather  claim  to  be,  just  about 
self-sustaining,  under  pressure, 
in  reference  to  food. 

Great  Britain  has  been  (I 
haven't  the  statistics,  but  this 
is  my  recollection)  considerably 
less  than  half  self-sustaining. 

England's  Achilles  heel  is  this 
(if  she  has  one) :  She  must  get 
her  food  by  sea  and  she  can't  de- 
fend herself  against  submarines 
by  building  twice  or  ten  times  as 
many  submarines,  for  subma- 
rines do  not  encounter  each 
other.  It  is  not  generally  appre- 
ciated that  the  British  subma- 

42 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


rines  have  been  handled  as  gal- 
lantly, as  audaciously,  as  suc- 
cessfully as  the  German  ones, 
but  they  have  an  infinitely  small- 
er target  to  shoot  at,  because 
there  are  few  Teutonic  or  Turk- 
ish ships  left  on  the  seas.  But 
submarines  can't  defend  against 
submarines. 

Being  of  Irish  descent  in  all 
directions  (a  mixture  of  Scotch- 
Irish  and  Irish -Irish),  I  have 
never  had  loving  feelings  toward 
the  British.  Nevertheless,  as  an 
American,  it  seems  to  me  clearly 
for  our  welfare  for  England  to 
remain  mistress  of  the  seas. 

Why?  Because  in  the  past 
century  England  has  had  the 
oceans  in  her  power  and  she  has 
not    misused    that    power.      In 

43 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


times  of  peace  at  least,  she  has 
been  a  fair  and  equitable  and 
just  suzerain  of  the  salt- waters. 
She  has  allowed  all  to  trade  with 
her  colonies  and  enter  her  ports 
and  pass  by  her  strong  places  on 
equal  terms  with  herself. 

If  Germany  wrested  command 
of  the  sea  from  England,  would 
Germany  be  as  easy  a  boss  as 
England?  That  no  man  know- 
eth,  but  I  doubt  it,  for  one. 

I  think  that  in  such  a  case  Ger- 
man ships  would  get  the  best  of 
it  all  down  the  line,  as  compared 
with  the  ships  of  other  nations. 

I  think  our  own  interests  as  a 
trading  nation  are  safer  with 
Neptune  in  statu  quo  than  they 
would  be  with  Neptune  in  statu 
Teutonico. 

44 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


However,  don't  let  us  forget 
that  this  is  the  time  to  make 
our  bargain  with  the  mistress  of 
the  seas.  When  the  war  is  over 
we  mustn't  be  left  out  on  the 
end  of  a  branch  to  the  tender 
mercies  of  an  infuriated  Ger- 
many blaming  us  (with  partial 
justice)  for  its  defeat.  We  cer- 
tainly can't  strangle  Germany 
by  salt-water,  whether  England 
can  or  not.  So  let  us  choose 
England  on  our  side  and  in  the 
holy  name  of  the  Monroe  doc- 
trine sit  tight  in  our  hemisphere 
and  make  more  money. 

It  is  upon  considerations  akin 
to  these  I  imagine  that  the  sin- 
gularly active  subconscious  mind 
of  Col.  Roosevelt  has  convinced 

45 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


him  that  Germany  should  not 
win.  One  may  share  in  his  con- 
clusions without  subscribing  to 
all  his  spoken  reasons  therefor. 


46 


IV 


S.  S.  CYMRIC,  Sept.  20,  1915. 

*'  Our  country!  In  her  intercourse  with 
foreign  nations  may  she  always  he  in  the 
right;    hut  our  country,  right  or  wrong." 

— Stephen  Decatur. 

There  are  two  quotations  con- 
cerning France  that  seem  timely. 
The  first  was  by  a  Russian  wom- 
an writer  a  few  years  ago : 

Spain  has  the  night,  Italy  the 
evening,  France  the  afternoon,  Eng- 
land the  noon,  Germany  the  morn- 
ing, but  tomorrow  belongs  to  Russia. 

The  other  one,  which  I  have 
damaged  considerably  in  trans- 

47 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 

lation,  has  recently  been  going 
the  rounds  of  French  papers: 

FRANCE 

BY  ARMENTER  HANIAN 

I  was  an  exile  from  my  own  coun- 
try and  wandered  over  the  breast  of 
the  world  seeking  another  country. 

And  I  came  into  a  land  where  there 
was  only  a  long  spring  and  a  long 
autumn,  where  they  did  not  know  the 
deadly  heats  of  our  summers  or  the 
mortal  colds  of  our  mountains. 
Among  the  vines  and  sunny  fields  I 
saw  the  people  of  this  land  at  work, 
ever  young  of  soul,  smiling,  loving, 
and  kindly. 

I  asked,  ''What  is  the  name  of  this 
happy   place?" 

And  the  answer  was,  "France  the 
voluptuous," 

I  came  to  towns  of  splendid  monu- 
ments,  of  harmonious  buildings,  of 

48 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


proud  triumphal  arches  of  the  past, 
and  above  always  I  saw  the  spires  of 
great  cathedrals  stretching  toward 
the  sky,  as  if  to  seize  upon  the  feet  of 
God. 

I  asked,  *'What  is  the  name  of  this 
marvelous  land?" 

And  the  answer  was,  ''France  the 
glorious." 

I  advanced  again,  when  I  was 
struck  by  the  red  color  of  a  large 
river.  ...  It  was  a  river  of  warm  blood 
that  rolled  down  from  afar  in  thick 
and  heavy  waves.  I  advanced  again. 
Before  me  dark  clouds  of  smoke  hid 
the  endless  sky  above  huge  fields  of 
warriors  in  battle;  when  these  died 
smiling  at  death  others  took  their 
places  singing. 

I  asked,  ''What  is  the  name  of  this 
chivalrous  land?'' 

And  the  answer  was,  "France  the 
courageous/' 

At  last  I  came  to  an  immense  city, 
4  49 


THE   NOTE   BOOK 


of  which  I  saw  neither  the  beginning 
nor  the  end,  a  city  full  of  sumptuous 
palaces,  of  parks,  and  fountains.  The 
sun  glistened  on  the  marble  of  the 
streets  and  kissed  the  serene,  re- 
signed faces  of  women  clothed  in 
black.  The  chimes  of  churches  filled 
the  air  with  solemn  sounds,  and 
words,  until  then  unknown  to  me, 
*'Te  Deum,"  came  from  the  throats 
of  thousands  of  thousands. 

With  respect  I  asked,  "What  is  the 
name  of  this  land  that  mourns?" 

And  the  answer  was,  "France  the 
victorious/' 

I  kissed  the  earth  of  this  land  and 
said,  '^I  have  found  my  country,  who 
was  an  exile." 

The  two  statements  are  anti- 
pathetic. One  suggests  a  deca- 
dent France,  the  other  a  shining 
land  of  strength  and  triumph. 
One  was  written  before  the  war, 

50 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


the  other  after  a  year  of  war. 
Each  may  have  been  truth  at  the 
time  of  writing. 

From  a  crushed,  abased,  and 
beaten  people  France  climbed 
in  a  year  to  the  heights  under 
the  banner  of  Joan  of  Arc.  Per- 
haps France  may  be  again  a 
first  power  in  Europe  and  the 
world. 

But  before  this  can  happen 
France  must  cease  to  sin  against 
herself.  She  must  allow  her 
population  to  increase. 

In  1870  the  French  and  Ger- 
mans had  about  equal  numbers, 
39,000,000  each,  to  draw  upon  for 
their  armies.  In  1914  the  French 
had  39,000,000;  the  Germans  68,- 
000,000.  In  1870  the  French 
fought  the   Germans  nation  to 

51 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


nation.  In  1914  France  could  not 
hope  to  face  Germany  without 
allies. 

If  in  the  course  of  this  dreadful 
war  the  Germans  kill  1,500,000 
French  males,  the  more  terrible 
truth  remains  that  France  has 
prepared  for  this  war  since  1871, 
by  denying  life  to  15,000,000 
French  males  and  15,000,000 
French  females. 

Indeed,  the  number  is  far  larg- 
er than  that.  For  the  German 
people  are  not  entirely  without 
the  means  and  the  will  to  pre- 
vent birth.  Yet  in  comparison 
with  the  Germans,  and  assuming 
their  increase  to  be  the  maxi- 
mum possible,  the  French  have 
lost  30,000,000  people  in  the  in- 
terval between  the  two  wars. 

52 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


Unless  the  war  and  the  inspira- 
tion of  a  splendid  triumph  shall 
restore  the  French  as  a  nation 
to  the  will  to  live,  the  willingness 
of  her  soldiers  to  die  can  avail 
little  in  the  long  run;  treaties, 
allies,  diplomacies  can  avail  noth- 
ing. If,  after  the  war,  French 
families  have  two  or  three  chil- 
dren and  German  families  four 
or  five,  then  no  matter  how  the 
war  turns  out,  no  matter  wheth- 
er the  Kaiser  ends  his  days  in 
St.  Helena  with  only  his  sons  for 
body  servants,  no  matter  if  the 
German  empire  is  broken  up  into 
its  pre-Bismarckian  fragments, 
no  matter  about  anything  else 
but  the  filling  of  the  cradle,  the 
civilized  nation  which  does  that 
has  the  morning,  and  the  nation 

53 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


which  refuses  has  the  after- 
noon. 

There  seems  to  be  a  group  of 
underlying  reasons  for  birth 
decline:  1.  The  complexity  of 
civilization.  2.  Density  of  pop- 
ulation. 3.  Religious  or  other 
idealistic  feelings. 

The  first  cause  is  by  far  the 
most  important.  The  more  civ- 
ilized a  people,  the  greater  its 
wealth,  the  higher  its  knowledge 
of  sanitation,  of  art,  and  of  cul- 
ture, the  smaller  the  birth-rate. 

In  this  respect  the  general 
biological  law  of  plant  and  ani- 
mal life  seems  to  operate.  The 
most  primitive  animals  have  the 
most  offspring,  the  most  highly 
developed  animals  have  the  few- 
est offspring.    Nature  c^n  spend 

54 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


its  vitality  upon  one  species  in 
producing  many  individuals  of 
low^  development,  or  it  can  (ap- 
parently) exhaust  its  vitality  up- 
on another  species  by  creating 
comparatively  few  individuals  of 
high  organization.  The  codfish 
lays  several  million  eggs  a  year, 
the  hen  several  dozen;  there  are 
several  kittens,  and  usually  only 
one  baby. 

Among  nations  whose  records 
are  kept  we  know  that  our  south- 
ern negroes,  the  south  Italians, 
and  the  Russian  peasantry  have 
the  highest  birth-rates,  while  the 
most  literate  and  highly  edu- 
cated peoples  have  the  lowest. 

Nature  (apparently)  can  spend 
itself    either    in    producing    one 

55 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


highly  developed  white  Ameri- 
can, Frenchman,  or  German,  or 
equally  in  producing  two  or  three 
negroes,  Russian  peasants,  or  Si- 
cilians. 

But  this  law  (if  it  be  one)  is 
not  invariable  in  application. 
For  instance,  the  degree  of  civili- 
zation in  France  and  Germany 
is  about  the  same.  They  have 
pretty  nearly  the  same  form  of 
government  in  those  respects 
which  intimately  affect  the  lives 
of  the  people,  namely,  each  is 
governed  by  a  permanent  ap- 
pointive bureaucracy  and  (for- 
tunate improvement  on  our  un- 
happy system)  the  bureaucrat 
seldom  serves  in  his  own  home 
district.  It  is  as  if  a  mayor  who 
succeeded  in  Peoria  might  next 

56 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


be  promoted  to  the  mayoralty  of 
Chicago,  and  a  chief  of  police 
who  made  good  in  Chicago  might 
expect  a  call  to  New  York. 

In  spread  of  education,  the 
Germans  are  slightly  ahead  of 
the  French,  one-half  of  1  per 
cent  of  recruits  entering  the 
German  army  being  unable  to 
read  while  in  France  the  figure  is 
2^  per  cent. 

The  areas  of  the  two  countries 
are  almost  the  same:  Germany, 
208,780  vsquare  miles  (91  per  cent 
productive) ;  France,  207,054  (92>^ 
per  cent  productive).  On  ter- 
ritories so  nearly  equivalent  the 
Germans  house  30,000,000  more 
people  than  the  French.  The 
density  of  population  is  310.4 
per    square    mile    in    Germany 

57 


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and    189.15   per    square   mile   in 
France. 

In  spite  of  this  greater  density 
Germany  continued  (until  the 
outbreak  of  the  war)  to  increase 
her  population  800,000  a  year  or 
more,  while  the  French  popula- 
tion increased  30,000  a  year. 
Japan  with  a  population  of  50,- 
000,000  on  an  area  of  148,000 
square  miles,  of  which  ''a  high 
percentage" — exact  figures  not 
given  in  Statesman's  Year  Book — 
is  rocky  and  non-productive,  in- 
creases her  population  at  the  rate 
of  700,000  a  year. 

The  explanation  may  have  to 
do  with  the  spiritual  condition 
of  the  two  countries.  Before 
the  war  France  as  a  nation  was 

58 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


in  a  pretty  cynical  frame  of 
mind.  Two  -  thirds  of  it  was 
practically  free-thinking,  ma- 
terialistic, socialistic.  It  didn't 
believe  in  much  you  couldn't 
touch. 

If  our  material  ideal  is  ''get 
the  money,"  France's  was  ''keep 
the  money,"  and  that  is  even 
lower  than  ours,  because  less 
adventurous,  less  daring. 

The  French  family  with  a  tiny 
security  bringing  in  an  income  of 
$50  a  year  would  pass  that  $50  a 
year  down  unchanged  for  two  or 
three  generations.  The  French- 
man who  held  a  government  job 
(there  are  about  1,000,000  gov- 
ernment jobs  in  a  population  of 
39,000,000)  wouldn't  move  half 
an  inch  out  of  the  groove  the  of- 

59 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


fice  had  been  in  since  Napoleon 
stereotyped  it  a  century  ago. 

Both  in  public  and  in  private 
business  France  was  swathed  in 
red  tape  and  the  long  way  'round. 
After  the  war,  when  she  starts 
rebuilding,  she  particularly 
needs  to  introduce  time  clocks, 
typewriters,  rubber  stamps,  and 
cash  registers,  and  other  reason- 
ably modern  methods  of  doing 
business.  At  present  she  is  wast- 
ing a  lot  of  human  effort  doing 
the  work  of  machines.  It  is  the 
trade-unionists'  idea  of  limita- 
tion of  output  applied  to  govern- 
ment and  clerical  positions. 

This  sense  of  caution  which 
permeated  the  nation  may  have 
been  because  France  was  growing 

60 


OF    A   NEUTRAL 


old,  or  it  may  be  because  the 
beating  of  1870-71  dampened 
its  national  courage.  A  victory 
of  1914-16  might  restore  to 
France  its  old  proud  dreams  of 
glory,  splendor,  pride,  and  ad- 
venture. 

It  v^as,  one  is  permitted  to  sur- 
mise, this  cautious  sense  of 
"keep  the  money,"  together 
with  the  spread  of  free-thinking, 
that  stopped  the  French  birth- 
rate. 

Belgium,  adjoining  France, 
and  of  a  precisely  similar  char- 
acter economically,  as  well  as  in 
the  Walloon  districts  being  al- 
lied racially,  had  before  the  war 
about  8,000,000  inhabitants,  as 
against  39,000,000  in  France.  Yet 
Belgium's  population  increased 


61 


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60,000  a  year  to  France's  30,000. 
Belgium  is  95  per  cent  Catholic; 
two-thirds  of  the  French  popula- 
tion is  practically  free-thinking. 
Germany  has  at  present  a  very 
intense  religion  of  its  own  and 
that  religion  is — Germany.  Ger- 
mans implicitly  believe  that  they 
are  the  greatest  people  of  this  or 
any  other  age.  And  in  many  re- 
spects, I  think  they  are  right 
about  it.  However,  that  does 
not  mean  that  it  is  at  all  to  our 
American  interest  for  the  Ger- 
man empire  to  extend  its  su- 
zerainty over  any  part  of  the 
western  hemisphere,  if  we  can 
prevent  it. 

German  parents  are  convinced 
that  to  bring  forth  a  German 

62 


OF    A   NEUTRAL 


baby,  especially  a  boy  who  can  be 
a  soldier,  is  a  glorious  thing  for 
the  boy,  because  he  can  some  day 
serve  such  a  Kaiser,  and  for  the 
Kaiser  because  he  can  some  day 
command  such  a  boy.  If  France 
was  cynical  and  world  weary  in 
1913,  Germany  was  the  most 
sophomoric,  youthful,  ''fresh," 
and  egotistical  of  all  the  great 
nations. 

It  believed  in  ''Gott  mit  uns," 
''Deutschland  uber  alles,"  and 
''Civilize  'em  with  a  Krag."  In 
other  words,  it  had  not  lost  its 
illusions.  It  never  doubted  the 
pot  of  gold  at  the  end  of  the 
rainbow. 

It  didn't  ask  if  life  was  worth 
living.     It  knew  it  was. 

It  was  a  glorious  world   (fast 


63 


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becoming  German)  in  which  to 
introduce  a  baby,  particularly  a 
boy.  And  if  his  parents,  because 
of  the  number  of  their  own 
brothers  and  sisters  and  chil- 
dren, did  not  have  $50  annuities 
to  hand  on  to  their  children, 
they  knew  they  had  something 
far  more  glorious  to  give — name- 
ly, German  citizenship. 

It  is,  to  us,  an  utterly  naive 
point  of  view,  but  it  makes  for 
good  armies.  It  is  the  same 
point  of  view  the  Japanese  have 
about  Japan. 

In  1914  Germany  was  still 
drunk  on  the  wine  of  1870.  It 
may  sober  up  on  the  bitter  wa- 
ters of  1916.  But  Japan  shows 
no  signs  of  tasting  bitter  waters. 
1895,  1900,  1905,  and  1915  all  were 

64 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


good  vintages  for  that   remark- 
able little  people. 

The  latest  census  figures  show 
that  among  white  Americans, 
born  of  native  American  parents, 
the  birth-rate  is  dropping  rapidly 
toward  French  figures.  The  rea- 
son for  this,  I  think,  is  the  same 
as  in  France.  Americans  of  the 
third  generation  are  highly  in- 
dividualized and  materialistic. 
Our  motto  is  get  the  money  and 
devil  takes  the  hindmost.  We 
are  so  eminently  ^^wise"  and 
practical  that  we  refuse  to  take 
out  insurance  against  the  na- 
tional calamity  that  is  probable 
within  the  decade. 


65 


S.  S.  CYMRIC,  Sept.  21,  1915. 

"  Our  country!  In  her  intercourse  with 
foreign  nations  may  she  always  be  in  the 
right;  but  our  country,  right  or  wrong.'' 

— Stephen  Decatur. 

From  our  national  point  of 
view,  the  most  advantageous  set- 
tlement after  the  great  war  ap- 
pears to  be  along  some  such  lines 
as  the  following : 

1.  (And  most  important.)  The 
severing  of  the  chains  which 
Japan  has  taken  advantage  of 
the  European  war  to  fasten  upon 
China.     This  point  will  be  di§- 

66 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


cussed  more  fully  tomorrow  in 
the  final  article  of  the  series. 

2.  England's  continued  mas- 
tery of  the  seas,  in  alliance  with 
us. 

3.  The  restoration  of  Belgium 
to  independence  under  French 
protection. 

4.  The  return  of  Alsace-Lor- 
raine to  France. 

5.  The  autonomy  of  Poland, 
under  German  or  Austrian  pro- 
tection. 

6.  The  banishment  of  the 
Turk  from  Europe. 

7.  The  division  of  certain  bits 
of  Austrian  territory  among  the 
Balkan  states  on  the  principle  of 
nationality. 

8.  The  extension  of  our  "pro- 
tection'' over  Mexico. 

67 


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Such  arrangements  as  the  fore- 
going would  keep  the  rivalries 
alive  between  the  stronger  Eu- 
ropean states,  which  is  to  our 
advantage. 

If  the  European  states  could 
once  finally  agree  on  a  fixed  and 
permanent  distribution  of  ter- 
ritory in  Europe,  then  their  in- 
tense military  and  diplomatic 
energies  would  necessarily  seek 
outlet  in  other  fields^ — for  exam- 
ple. South  and  Central  America. 

The  advantage  to  us  of  a  naval 
alliance  with  Great  Britain  is 
clear  enough.  Britain  has  the 
greatest  navy  in  the  world.  In 
conjunction  with  that  navy  we 
could  protect  our  coasts  and 
islands    against    any    power    or 

68 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


combination  of  powers  now  in 
sight.  A  clear  and  obvious  bene- 
fit to  us.  But  what  is  the  quid 
pro  quo  ?  What  is  in  it  for  Eng- 
land? 

First,  if  our  government  has 
the  will  power  and  intelligence 
to  make  the  bargain  we  could 
offer  Great  Britain  more  am- 
munition and  war  material  than 
we  are  now  supplying  at  very 
much  lower  prices  than  our 
thrifty  manufacturers  are  now 
charging;  or  perhaps  we  could 
furnish  the  ammunition  free 
from  our  government  arsenals. 

If  Great  Britain  refused  a  naval 
alliance  we  could  refuse  to  let  her 
have  any  ammunition  on  any 
terms  whatever. 

Next,  after  the  war  we  could 

69 


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increase  our  navy  and  make  it 
more  effective,  so  that  Great 
Britain  could  not  feel  that  the 
major  burden  of  our  defense  w^as 
laid  upon  her. 

As  the  British  empire  and  the 
United  States  are  the  two  great 
North  American  pov^ers,  they 
have  a  common  selfish  reason 
for  upholding  the  Monroe  doc- 
trine and  protecting  this  entire 
hemisphere  from  European  or 
Asiatic  aggression.  It  is  not 
generally  appreciated  in  the 
United  States  that  the  Monroe 
doctrine  was  originated  by  the 
English  and  merely  accepted  by 
President  Monroe. 

Belgium,  a  fiat  and  fertile  and 
naturally    defenseless    territory, 

70 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


lying  between  the  sea  and  the 
German  and  French  races,  for 
centuries  has  been  the  predes- 
tined battlefield  of  western  Eu- 
rope. Philip  II.  and  his  bloody 
Duke  of  Alva,  and  William  of 
Orange;  Marlborough  and  Louis 
XIV. ;  the  armies  of  revolutionary 
France  and  the  opposing  kings; 
Wellington,  Blucher,  and  Napo- 
leon, met  in  Belgium.  Belgium 
has  changed  hands  oftener  per- 
haps than  any  other  territory  in 
the  world  —  from  Spain  to  Aus- 
tria, to  Spain,  to  Austria,  again 
to  France,  to  Holland,  to  neu- 
tralization. There  have  been 
more  scraps  of  paper  torn  up  in 
Belgium  than  anywhere  else  in 
the  world. 

Belgium  is,  or  was,  not  a  nat- 

71 


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ural  but  an  artificial  nation. 
There  is  not  a  Belgian  people. 
Before  the  war  2,800,000  of  the 
people  spoke  only  French;  3,200- 
000  spoke  only  Flemish  (akin  to 
Dutch),  and  they  were  legislat- 
ing against  each  other  at  a  great 
rate  to  put  one  another's  lan- 
guage out  of  the  schools  and 
courts.  The  remaining  million 
Belgians  (over  2  years  old)  spoke 
both  French  and  Flemish. 

Belgium's  separate  existence 
dates  from  1831,  when  with  the 
covert  assistance  of  England  and 
France  she  obtained  her  inde- 
pendence from  Holland,  after 
some  fighting  of  minor  conse- 
quence. England's  interest  in 
Belgium,  though  now  professed- 

72 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


ly  sentimental,  has  hitherto  been 
frankly  commercial.  Through 
the  independence  of  Belgium  the 
great  port  of  Antwerp  became  an 
open  door  through  which  by  vir- 
tue of  the  most  favored  nation 
clause  English  goods  could  reach 
the  heart  of  the  continent  on 
equal  terms  with  those  of  all 
other  nations. 

Napoleon  spoke  of  Antwerp  as 
a  pistol  leveled  at  the  heart  of 
England.  He  meant  in  a  mili- 
tary sense.  If  the  Germans  hold 
Antwerp  it  will  be  a  commercial 
pistol  in  their  hands  at  England's 
heart. 

The  following  figures  for  1912, 
the  last  published,  explain  some- 
thing of  the  bitterness  of  the  war 
and  of  England's  passionate  ex- 

73 


THE   NOTE   BOOK 


clamations    concerning    Belgian 
atrocities  and  scraps  of  paper: 

VESSELS  AT  BELGIAN  PORTS 


ENTERED 

Nationality                No.  Tonnage 

Belgian 1,962  1,856,832 

British 5,152  7,079,203 

German 1,768    _  4,269,515 

CLEARED 

Nationality               No.  Tonnage 

Belgian 1,961  1,871,003 

British 5,145  7,037,734 

German 1,748  4,239,807 

If  the   Germans   should  hold 
Antwerp  after  the  war  the  British 

tonnage  would  fall   at  once  to 
second  place,  or  lower. 

74 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


France  was  the  first  of  the 
signatories  of  the  widely  adver- 
tised neutrality  treaty  of  1831  to 
propose  officially  the  violation  of 
the  Belgian  neutrality.  In  1867 
the  French  government  instruct- 
ed its  ambassador  in  Prussia, 
Count  Benedetti,  to  obtain  Prus- 
sia's consent  to  the  French  con- 
quest of  Belgium  in  compensa- 
tion for  French  neutrality  during 
Prussia's  conquest  of  Austria  the 
previous  year. 

A  regular  scale  of  conces- 
sions was  demanded — first,  the 
(French)  frontiers  of  1814  and 
the  annexation  of  Belgium;  or 
Luxemburg  with  Belgium;  or 
Luxemburg  with  Belgium  but 
without  Antwerp,  which  was  to 
be  declared  a  free   city  ''to  ob- 

75 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


viate  the  intervention  of  Eng- 
land." 

"The  minimum  we  require," 
wrote  the  French  government  to 
Count  Benedetti,  ''is  an  osten- 
sible treaty  which  gives  us  Lux- 
emburg and  a  secret  treaty 
which,  stipulating  for  an  offen- 
sive and  defensive  alliance,  leaves 
us  the  chance  of  annexing  Bel- 
gium at  the  right  moment,  Prus- 
sia engaging  to  assist  us  by  force 
of  arms  if  necessary  in  carrying 
out  this  purpose." 

Bismarck  on  this  occasion  out- 
witted Benedetti  and  held  out 
hopes  of  Belgium  for  France  un- 
til 1870,  when  Prussia  was  ready 
for  war. 

Between    such    neighbors    as 

76 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


France  and  Germany,  Belgium  is 
not  safe.  At  least  it  never  has 
been  yet.  France  has  invaded 
Belgium  oftener  than  any  other 
country.  Belgium  for  its  own  fu- 
ture security  should  be  drawn 
into  the  military  orbit  of  one 
of  its  two  great  neighbors.  It 
should  go  to  France,  and  its  pop- 
ulation be  made  subject  to  the 
plans  of  the  French  general  staff, 
because  this  would  strengthen 
France  and  tend  to  bring  it  tow- 
ard a  military  parity  with  Ger- 
many. Commercially  Antwerp 
and  the  rest  of  Belgium  could  re- 
main a  free  port  for  England. 

Alsace-Lorraine  should  go  to 
France  for  its  moral  effect.  Such 
a  gage  of  victory  would  invigorate 
the  entire  French  nation.     Per- 

77 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


haps  if  la  gloire  came  back  to 
France  she  might  again  be  fe- 
cund. The  hope  in  its  statement 
seems  utterly  fantastic,  but  per- 
haps it  is  not  impossible. 

Anything  to  strengthen  the 
position  of  the  French  republic 
among  the  great  powers  is  to  the 
advantage  of  our  republic.  The 
question  is  complicated  by  the 
fact  that  of  the  inhabitants  of 
Alsace  -  Lorraine  1,634,000  are 
German  -  speaking  and  204,000 
are  French-speaking.  But  this 
fact  is  outweighed  by  the  mili- 
tary advantages  the  French 
would  gain  by  the  recession, 
both  from  the  moral  effect  of 
such  a  symbol  of  victory  and 
from  the  strategic  value  of  Metz 
and  Strassburg. 

78 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


Italy  should  obtain  Trent  and 
Triest  from  Austria  if  it  can  take 
them — the  right  of  the  stronger. 
We  are  not  particularly  inter- 
ested either  way. 

Poland  should  be  made  au- 
tonomous and  under  Prussian 
or  Austrian  rule.  Poland  is  in- 
habited chiefly  by  Polish  Cath- 
olics and  Russian  Jews.  Under 
Russia's  economic  and  relig- 
ious oppression  from  100,000  to 
150,000  inhabitants  of  Russian 
Poland  emigrate  annually  to  the 
United  States.  This  number  of 
a  rather  low  grade  of  immigrants 
is  far  more  than  we  desire  or  can 
advantageously  assimilate.  The 
Prussian  rule  is  not  mild  any- 
where, but  it  is  comparatively 
just.    The  emigration  from  Ger- 

79 


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man  Poland  to  the  United  States 
is  from  3,500  to  5,000  a  year. 

Another  reason  why  we  should 
wish  Germany  to  take  Poland  is 
because  that  would  throw  the 
apple  of  discord  between  the  two 
great  military  empires  of  Europe. 
And  nothing  could  be  more  dis- 
turbing to  the  peace  of  mind  of 
western  Europe  and  America 
than  Germany's  reversion  to 
Bismarck's  policy  of  ''reinsur- 
ance' ' — a  personal  understanding 
between  the  Kaiser  and  the  Czar. 
It  is  difficult  to  conceive  of  a 
stronger  military  combination 
than  a  zwei-Kaiser  bund  between 
the  German  Kaiser  and  the  Rus- 
sian Czar  (Austria  in  attend- 
ance), except  a  drei-Kaiser  bund 

80 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


between  the  three  war  lords, 
Kaiser,  Czar,  and  Mikado.  That 
combination  would  be  irresisti- 
ble on  the  continents  of  Europe, 
Asia,  and  Africa — everywhere  its 
soldiers  could  walk. 

It  is  as  clearly  to  the  advantage 
of  the  western  powers  (England, 
France,  and  the  United  States)  to 
promote  hostility  between  Ger- 
many and  Russia  as  it  is  to  the 
advantage  of  Germany  to  revert 
to  its  traditional  policy  (from  the 
time  of  Frederick  the  Great  to 
the  dropping  of  Bismarck  by 
William  II.)  of  friendship  be- 
tween Russia  and  Germany. 

If  as  a  result  of  the  war  Russia 
loses  both  Poland  and  vodka,  it 
will  be  the  greatest  victory  in  the 
history  of  the  empire  of  the  north. 

6  81 


VI 


S.  S.  CYMRIC,  Sept.  22,  1915. 

''Our  country!  In  her  intercourse  with 
foreign  nations  may  she  always  he  in  the 
right;    hut  our  country y  right  or  wrong'' 

— Stephen  Decatur. 

The  psychology  of  nations  and 
armies  in  war  is  not  merely  more 
intense  and  passionate,  it  is  com- 
pletely different  from  that  of  the 
same  nations  and  armies  in 
peace. 

Foreigners,  who  in  times  of 
peace  were  thought  of  as  waiters, 
hotel-keepers,  musicians,  fox- 
hunters,  must  be  thought  of  in 

82 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


times  of  war  as  hordes  of  anti- 
christs, enemies  of  mankind. 

It  is  a  practical  matter.  A 
barber  or  bellboy  who  might 
hesitate  to  shoot  at  another  bar- 
ber or  bellboy  would  conscien- 
tiously spend  a  winter  in  the 
trenches  to  kill  an  anti-Christ. 

War,  other  things  being  ap- 
proximately equal,  is  won  by 
the  nation  with  the  strongest 
will,  and  the  way  to  strengthen 
your  will  to  fight  is  to  think  of 
your  enemy  as  base,  brutal,  and 
feeble  and  of  your  side  as  strong, 
gallant,  clever. 

If  the  Kaiser  described  the 
English  as  ''a  contemptible  little 
army,"  it  would  be  the  proper 
war  ''dope"  to  hand  out  to  his 
soldiers.     It  would  make   thern 

83 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


more  eager  to  attack  the  English 
than  if  they  thought  of  them  as 
a  band  of  man-eating  tigers  apt 
to  give  a  terrific  mauling  to  all 
opponents. 

The  impression  seems  widely 
spread  abroad  in  England  and 
America  at  present  that  the  chief 
military  operations  undertaken 
by  the  Germans  in  Belgium  were 
against  unarmed  civilians  and 
consisted  of  destroying  churches, 
burning  towns,  shooting  priests, 
cutting  hands  from  babies,  and 
violating  women.  It  is  of  dis- 
tinct military  value  to  spread 
this  impression  in  France  and 
England,  for  it  not  only  lashes 
the  soldier  of  those  countries  in- 
to fury,  but  it  also  skips  some- 

84 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


what  lightly  over  the  fact  that  in 
their  swift  thrust  through  Bel- 
gium and  northern  France  the 
Germans  were  opposed  not  only 
by  civilians  and  churches,  but 
by  fortresses  and  the  armies  of 
France,  England,  and  Belgium. 

It  is  not  true  that  the  German 
thrust  through  Belgium  was  a 
surprise  to  the  military  author- 
ities of  France  and  England. 
The  great  debate  in  the  French 
parliament  in  1912  and  1913  on 
the  three-year  law  (as  to  whether 
the  compulsory  military  service 
should  be  raised  from  two  to 
three  years)  was  finally  won  by 
the  advocates  of  the  three-year 
service,  largely  if  not  chiefly  on 
the  argument  that  the  Germans 
would    not    hesitate     to     come 

85 


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through  Belgium  if  they  thought 
they  could  gain  a  military  ad- 
vantage thereby.  These  debates 
were  not  held  in  executive  ses- 
sion, but  were  published  exten- 
sively in  the  newspapers.  In  con- 
sequence the  condition  of  the 
French  forts  on  the  Belgian 
frontier  was  investigated,  quite 
a  bit  of  graft  was  discovered,  and 
scandal  resulted. 

Nor  is  there  any  particular 
validity  in  the  charge  that  for 
the  last  forty-four  years  Ger- 
many alone  has  been  preparing 
for  war,  while  the  other  nations, 
inferentially,  never  dreamed  of 
such  a  thing. 

Before  the  war  France  took  all 
its  healthy  young  men  into  the 

86 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


army  for  three  years,  while  Ger- 
many took  about  60  per  cent  of 
its  healthy  young  men  into  the 
army  for  two  years  (cavalry 
three).  Before  the  war  Russia 
had  a  peace  establishment  of 
1,300,000,  Germany  of  800,000. 
Before  the  war  Great  Britain 
had  the  greatest  navy  in  the 
world. 

I  doubt  not  that  Germany  was 
the  aggressor  in  this  war.  I 
think  it  indisputable  that  the 
German  higher  command  seized 
what  it  believed  to  be  an  oppor- 
tune moment  to  strike,  and 
struck.  But  there  is  no  sense 
whatever  in  the  apparently  prev- 
alent notion  that  Germany  has 
been  alone  in  preparing  for  this 
war  since  the  last  one. 

87 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


England,  France,  Germany, 
and  Russia  all  have  been  ap- 
propriating about  the  same 
amount  of  money  for  military 
and  naval  expenses  each  year, 
and  if  Germany  is  the  only  one 
that  has  spent  its  military  ap- 
propriations on  ' 'preparation  for 
war,"  the  other  countries  have 
been  stolen  blind  by  their  naval 
and  military  officers  and  con- 
tractors, or  else  those  gentlemen 
are  almighty  inefficient. 

Such  charges  are  in  the  nature 
of  ''alibis"  to  explain  defeats.  If 
the  other  countries  had  smashed 
up  Germany  in  a  six  weeks'  cam- 
paign they  would  be  bragging 
now  of  their  marvelous  prepared- 
ness and  their  politicians  would 

88 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


be    running    for    office    on    that 
issue. 

The  English  in  one  breath  pro- 
claim the  bloodthirsty  brutality 
of  the  Germans  in  making  their 
army  a  "huge  war  machine"  and 
in  the  next  extol  their  own  al- 
most celestial  virtue  in  having 
their  navy  utterly  fit  on  the 
break  of  hostilities. 

When  (or  if)  the  Japanese  at- 
tack us  we  shall  immediately 
present  the  same  alibis  for  our 
defeats,  but  with  even  less  ex- 
cuse. The  other  nations  at  least 
tried  to  prepare  for  the  probable 
onslaught  of  the  great  military 
empire  of  Germany.  We  are  not 
even  trying  to  prepare  for  the 
probable  onslaught  of  the  great 
military  empire  of  Japan. 


89 


THE   NOTE   BOOK 

The  other  nations  complained 
of  the  surprise  attack  of  Ger- 
many. If  the  Japanese  attack 
us  we  shall  doubtless  try  after 
the  event  to  derive  some  minor 
comfort  from  similar  complaint. 
But  such  comfort  is  quite  minor. 

One  thing  is  certain.  If  the 
Japanese  decide  to  fight  us  they 
will  try  to  surprise  us  and  obtain 
for  themselves  that  initial  ad- 
vantage. 

What  do  I  mean — war  with 
Japan?  Has  the  war  in  Europe 
addled  my  brain?  Am  I  seeing 
things  at  night? 

I  hope  that  is  the  explanation. 
Nevertheless  these  facts  are  in- 
disputable: Japan  is  now  dom- 
inated by  descendants  of  the  old 

90 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


Samurai,  a  caste  more  martial 
even  than  the  Prussian  junkers, 
a  caste  that  believes  the  only 
honorable  occupation  for  a  gen- 
tleman is  war;  a  caste  that  de- 
spises trade  and  tradesmen.  We 
are  a  nation  of  tradesmen. 

Under  the  influence  of  this 
caste  the  Japanese  have  engaged 
in  five  wars  in  the  past  twenty- 
one  years  and  all  have  been 
glorious  and  profitable  —  viz. : 
1894-95  against  China,  which  re- 
sulted in  the  acquisition  of  For- 
mosa; 1900  Boxer  expedition, 
when  Japanese  troops  distin- 
guished themselves  above  their 
white  allies,  resulting  in  Anglo- 
Japanese  alliance;  1904-05 
against  Russia,  resulting  in  ac- 
quisition of  Corea,  Port  Arthur, 

91 


THE    NOTE    BOOK 


lower  Manchuria;  1914  against 
Germany,  resulting  in  capture  of 
Kiao-Chau,  with  the  rich  prov- 
ince of  Shantung  for  a  hinter- 
land; 1915,  ''the  peaceful  war,'^ 
with  China,  in  which  by  the  dis- 
play of  irresistible  force  the  Jap- 
anese forced  a  treaty  upon  China 
which  makes  that  aged  country 
tantamount  to  vassal  of  the 
islanders. 


Is  there  any  reason  to  suppose 
that  the  Japanese  have  turned 
pacifist  since  their  latest,  easiest, 
and  most  profitable  victory  last 
March? 

''But  why  should  they  want  to 
fight  us  in  particular?"  Aside 
from  the  fact  that  they  like 
fighting  and  dislike  us,  we  are  the 

92 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


next  logical  victim,  being  a  near 
neighbor,  unmilitary  and  rich — 
a  wonderful  nation  to  loot. 

Japan  and  its  vassal,  China, 
are  settled  to  the  suffocation 
point.  If  the  Japanese  could 
seize  and  hold  Alaska  and  the 
Pacific  states  for  five  years,  at  the 
end  of  that  time  there  would 
probably  be  not  less  than  5,000,- 
000  Chinese  and  Japanese  settled 
on  this  continent,  on  the  other 
side  of  the  Japanese  outposts. 

"But  Japan  hasn't  the  money 
to  fight  us.''  If  Japan  can  con- 
firm and  regularize  the  vassalage 
of  China  at  the  peace  treaties 
after  the  great  war  it  will  have 
all  the  natural  wealth  it  needs — 
coal,  iron,  and  cheap  labor — to 
start  war  with  us   on    a   grand 

93 


THE    NOTE   BOOK 


scale.  After  the  war  gets  well 
under  way  Japan  will  expect  us 
to  pay  for  its  continuance. 

''But  even  if  there  could  be  any 
vestige  of  possibility  in  such  a 
nightmare,  why  suggest  alliance 
with  Great  Britain,  already  al- 
lied with  Japan,  instead  of  with 
Germany,  already  at  war  with 
Japan?" 

For  three  reasons — 1.  England 
has  large  interests  in  central  and 
south  China,  and  strong  naval 
bases  in  the  Pacific,  and  will  be 
jealous  of  the  Japanese  advance 
in  those  regions.  Germany  has 
already  lost  its  Chinese  colony 
and  all  naval  bases  in  the  Pacific. 

2.  The  British  colonies,  Brit- 
ish Columbia,  New  Zealand,  and 
Australia,   share  the   apprehen- 

94 


OF    A    NEUTRAL 


sions  of  our  Pacific  states  con- 
cerning the  Japanese  and  would 
urge  the  mother  country  to  com- 
mon cause  with  us. 

3.  The  British  navy  will  prob- 
ably be  much  stronger  than  the 
German  navy  after  the  war  and 
it  is  the  high  moral  duty  of  our 
statesmen  to  be  with  the  winner 
if  they  can  pick  him  out  in  ad- 
vance. 

However,  though  we  live  in  an 
inflammable  house  and  ought  to 
take  out  fire  insurance,  we  will 
probably  prefer  to  chance  it. 


THE  END 


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